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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ForYourEyesOnly who wrote (11628)	4/10/2004 4:14:42 AM
From: Umunhum	Read Replies (3) of 110194

<My focus is the futures markets, and I think that may be one reason for the difference in our views.> With Hubbert's Peak just around the corner, a dollar crisis on the horizon, and very limited excess capacity I believe oil should be priced with forwardization not backwardization. futuresource.com I also believe that demand will soon exceed supply and so higher prices will have to choke off demand (this of course will be exacerbated by Hubbert's Peak). I am trying to formulate an investment strategy to buy 50 contracts of oil. I believe that there is only $3 to $4 dollars on the down side and $20 to $40 on the upside. So far I have only bought 2 dec '06 and 1 dec '08. I am thinking about buying 10 each of dec '06,'07,'08,'09 and '10. Total invesment would be Margin requirement $3,375 * 50 = $168,750. It would probably be wise to have another $200k for drawdown. I believe the above investment will pay off at least a million. Opinions?

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