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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Umunhum who wrote (11633)4/10/2004 8:35:46 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
i agree with the idea of buying oil futures, although i also own oil stocks. also, my philosophy toward the futures is to ignore the margin requirement and have 100% "cash-backed" position. i think margin is a quick road to money heaven, especially in futures. i think the need for sufficient financial backing is especially important in buying an illiquid position like the far-out futures which may not even have a bid or ask on them.

i also like the idea of spreading the positions out over multiple years, but this is easier said than done at efficient prices. the far-out contracts are very illiquid. you'll notice on that quote sheet you posted that the 2010 price was higher than 2009, which is the only break in the backwardization string of the whole series. my guess is this was somebody "stretching" to get a fill in 2010, where i have tried unsuccessfully to get filled several times (i was luckier on 2009). so my approach is to be patient and have an "accumulate" attitude.
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