With events moving so fast, any article is likely to be dated - e.g. now the Japanese hostages are to be released. But
Grief in Washington: Analysis of the Incompetence that led to Intifadah
smh.com.au
is still worth a read.
To understand, we must wade through the Baghdad Bob lingo
"It's not a lot of people," he explained, just "former regime elements" and "thugs and criminal gangs".
Almost a year ago, early last summer, I was wondering if the Iraqi opposition was politically savvy and powerful enough to pull off a "Tet" offensive. Now, I read
"Do you know what this reminds me of?" Senator Joe Biden asked his Republican colleagues. "Only one similarity to Vietnam - the Tet offensive."
And what's most interesting is that the US started this. Perhaps because they saw June 30th looming, they decided they would "take control" of Fallujah. Sorry, Fallujah is already lost. Stupid moves long ago radicalized that town. The only way to "take control" is to level the town. And what does that yield in a larger context. No, Fallujah is a no-win situation, and to not have realized that prior to this latest idiocy, demonstrates how "out-of-touch" the CPA is.
The other stupid move was to take on Sadr.
"Going after al-Sadr was the stupidest thing Bremer has done since the disbanding of the [Iraqi] military."
And what could be more dumb? Going after Fallujah and Sadr simultaneously. As I've posted here, Sadr has ab initio tried to bridge the Sunni-Shia divide - and is therefore dangerous to the divide-and-conquer strategy of the CPA.
But the move on al-Sadr may have been provoked by fears that he would be successful in building a political movement that temporarily allied Shiite and Sunni imans in opposition to the American occupation and America's most loyal allies, the Kurds.
and
"These are Sunni and Shiite clerics who are trying to organise an opposition front as a direct political alternative to the Iraqi Governing Council," said Toensing. They were making a play to win over supporters of the Shiite leaders on the council who are seen as too pro-American. Despite claims by US commanders that there are no links between the Sunni and Shiite opponents, Toensing says "the clear impression I took away from Iraq is that opposition is broader than the US is saying".
So with an opponent whose principle danger is his ability to unite Sunni and Shia opposition, the CPA attacks Sadr at the same time they attack the Sunni in Fallujah. Real smart!
If CPA had been bright they could have marginalized the militants in Fallujah because of the shame many Iraqis felt about the mutilations, and they could have marginalized Sadr as a young, irresponsible hot head. But if they were bright, they wouldn't be in Baghdad. Instead, the Keystone Kops give GWB his Tet.
JMO
lurqer |
