SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: mishedlo who wrote (4119)4/12/2004 2:34:30 AM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (5) of 116555
 
Japan vs. US: This probably is appropriate here.

===========

I would agree with your LT map except that it parallels the Nikkei pattern to a "T". If we didn't change our behavior from Japan, I'd expect them to be similar. However, there's one critical difference: our Fed "learned" to react to the bursting stock bubble by pumping the credit bubble that much harder and quicker.

Consider Japan:

economagic.com

Notice how the Japanese fed goosed things in 1995 with two huge rate cuts. That led *directly* to the mini-boom that followed, which E-wave types observe as the impulsive "C" wave up in the Nikkei for the next year.

Now look at U.S.

economagic.com

Our Fed emptied the chambers, compressing what the Japanese Fed did in five years into the span of only a couple years. I firmly believe that this will lead to a substantially different wave pattern here, that the equivalent of the 1995 Fed goosing in Japan has already taken place, and that it is very likely that we have already seen the "C" wave.

I *know* you guys aren't into funnymentals, but I believe that liquidity *is* a technical affair, and it flows straight from the monetary "authorities". They actually have the ability to shape long-term wave patterns. In fact, I forecast that they will permit the next leg down to unfold *right up to the point that the equity markets are touching the previous bear market lows* and then they will pull the trigger on the last couple bullets.

Take it for what it's worth, but if you ask me, this single scenario defines the whole long-term picture.

BC
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News