I don't see how you arrive at the conclusion my chart parallels the Nikkei.
The Nikkei went from 40,000 to less than 8,000. It lost over 80 % of its value, in a huge 5-3-5 so far. But the LT chart I show for the SPX does not have the SPX losing anywhere near the same proportion, and in fact it has the SPX going to a near new high, in '06. Quite a difference imo.
I don't yet view The Fed as The Matrix. Rather I think they are only reacting, in the main. Fundamentally I believe the global scene, along with the US, in somewhat of a bifurcated economy. In some areas we have had impressive recent technological advances, and have huge excess over capacity. Tech is one of these areas. Hence the boom bust. In other areas we have huge needs in front of us, and lack of ready resources to supply those needs. The resources themselves are probably available, but the means to get at them and make use of them are not. Along with this I believe most areas of the world are in need of huge infrastructure improvements, and this includes the US. This is not going change over night.
This bifurcation in my opinion explains some of the differences in the more recent performance of the Nas, compared to the SPX and the DOW. I happen to think old hat companies, and in particular commodities, are going to do quite well over the next several years. Other areas will remain quite volatile. I don't think The Fed has a lot to do with this, except for helping along the execution.
As you know I am from AK. It seems certain imo that a gas pipeline to the lower 48 is not that far off. The largest project in the world, soon to get off ground maybe. These types of things don't happen during Nikkei type stock market wipe outs, which was more akin to our depression market than what we have had so far. This is just one example of the types of projects we have to do. Maybe it is time to think about things like metals, energy, machinery manufacturers, etc., as opposed to cell phone companies. All that shit ain't coming from China, guaranteed.
Maybe a degree in computer science (within the US) is not the hot ticket to the near term future. Maybe degrees in other more down to earth fields of engineering will however suffice quite nicely. Lot of gray haired old hat machinery folks like me about ready to chuck it in, and in many of these fields we've done nothing but lay people off for years. We've trained very few, and the ranks are quite thin. |
