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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: nspolar who wrote (94701)	4/13/2004 8:05:03 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) of 209892

I meant on strictly cycle timing. Replace 1990 on Nikkei with 2000 and you pretty much have a picture of the Nasdaq. It sounds like you don't subscribe to the notion that there is a serious bubble present, which I firmly believe. When debt is growing at rates of 5-10% of GDP per year, it says that there is a massive gap between sustainable demand levels and existing supply. When that credit bubble hits whatever limiting threshold it may find, it will leave a gaping hole in aggregate demand, with huge ramifications for an overleveraged US economy. I happen to believe that 0% Fed Funds is that threshold. In 2004, we now look far more like Japan in 1994 (or perhaps 1996) than I ever could have imagined... BC

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