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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation
WDC 221.51-0.3%Jan 16 9:30 AM EST
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To: Michael A. Gottesman who wrote (25547)4/13/2004 9:33:11 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer  Read Replies (1) of 60323
 
It looks like SanDisk's investment is increasing beyond earlier plans. But looking at Toshiba's estimates of growth in demand for 2005 suggests that the larger investment is fully justified.

The issue down the road is whether the urge to keep up with Samsung means another glut in two or three years. Many investors will be extra cautious because it is hard to believe that almost 80 percent annual growth in demand can last forever, or for even a few more years.

Yet, it is well to recall Eli Harari's views that lower prices generate more and more new applications. I believe flash memory is already priced low enough to justify replacing the hard disk drive in notebook computers. The extra cost of flash memory is compensated by less current draw, which means either longer battery life or a smaller battery. In either case, it means a better performing computer. Put another way, a small laptop would need only two compact flash slots to have enough memory for most applications and files. Additional file space could come from external flash or from additional flash cards.

Note also that manufacture of wafers is pretty much automated to the point where higher labor costs in Japan (compared with elsewhere in Asia) would not be an impediment.

Art
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