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Strategies & Market Trends : MrBuzz's Calls

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To: MrBuzz who wrote (1010)	4/14/2004 6:34:51 AM
From: MrBuzz	Read Replies (1) of 1050

Going on a long vacation Going on vacation for an undetermined time frame. After watching the last two weeks of market action, I decided to close out all my long term position mutual fund holdings that I had over the last 12-18 months and bank on my gains. I also closed out all positions in the BuzzPortfolio. A general feeling on my part of a lack of follow through past Nasdaq $NDX 1500 in this morning's session left me with overall concern about this market. In the intermediate term run, I don't feel there is much trading opportunities available for both daytrading and swing trading. Most of this due to volatility being cranked down. This is evident in the intraday as the trading has been quite dull. This is quite like the "normal" trading I've experienced in the early 1980's to mid 1980's where being an investor really meant just that. Do I think this is an investor environment? No. If anything, its a crap shoot up here and it requires you to monitor your positions and move in/out - too much work in my opinion. There are times when one should just back off and let the market churn. I feel this is one of them. Issues: 1) Continued war on terrorism in Iraq and the world 2) Expectations in rising interest rates resulting in investors pulling money out of the equity markets into interest bearing accounts 3) End of technology era where innovation and growth has all but stalled 4) Lack of a new era catalyst - the next big thing 5) Baby boomer dilemna where outflows are expected and new generation has no sense of saving for investment to prop it up - rather, they are spending it with faulty consumer habits. 6) Rise in 30year bond market 7) Rising unemployment rate. There is no indication that this has stopped. Expect 8.0% in the next few years. 8) Severe year 2000 topping bubble followed by last years "dead cat bounce" 9) January 2004 blow off top feel 10) Bush administration inability to control budget deficit. 11) Continued budget deficit at the state and local levels 12) Increased consumer debt 13) Possible housing market bubble resulting in reductions in net worth for Americans. This issue alone is worth thinking about. 14) Inflation. I don't care if economists or scholars say inflation doesn't exist. It does. Ever compare the price of gas, orange juice, milk, health/home/auto insurance, against prices 10 years ago? Prices don't rise out of nowhere. Until we Americans refuse to pay for higher prices, businesses will forever get wealthier on your expense. 15) Lack of wage increases. When was the last time you got a nice healthy raise? Or did you have to resort to taking a salary cut? Have prices gone down along with your cut? No. So what are we going to do about this America? Continue to spend on less take home? 16) Dollar devaluation 17) Presidential election year 18) Continued push for war. Until my next post, - Buzzy

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