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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 345.64

-2.0%

Feb 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (14469)	4/14/2004 8:34:56 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) of 95850

when we have too much consensus, that always seems to be a problem The evidence you cited does not seem to corroborate this theory. You have demonstrated that there is extremely little consensus in the analytical community regarding Novellus' earnings for FY 2005 (although I wouldn't mind some time series data on "next years" forecasted earnings to be sure) What can us mortals do. Try to interpret what the market is saying. The problem we face, in my estimation, goes well beyond the characteristics of this particular industry, where we happen to be in its cycle, or its outlook for earnings in the immediate future. Can we still summon our collective wisdom to solve this conundrum, although it is not, in my estimation, an industry-specific analytical problem, as you have defined the thread's boundaries? What is the market saying to me? That we have a problem of a more macroeconomic nature. What if the interest rate bears are right that we are on the verge of a spectacular LT secular rise in US rates? Sam

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