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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: macavity who wrote (48559)4/14/2004 2:48:59 PM
From: LLCF  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
<If gold turns down here ($AU < 385/0) then Prechter is Da Man, as I believe that we would be having a (CYCLICAL) gold bear and possibly USD bull. >

I think Prechter thinks we're still in a Gold cyclical bear from the 80's and he's waiting for it to bottom in the 200's somewhere.

<If so then it is saying that USD_M3 is about to head south no matter what Mr G does.>

Agreed, but the fed has stated that longer term, they will do what ever it takes to keep MS growing. So while I agree we could have nasty whack in all asset values, a few years into it the Fed would be buying stocks, bonds, houses or whatever they have to. The $US is probably doomed under a depression scenario.... Heinz points out the possibility of a printathon like Germany had... I agree.

< am finding it hard to square Rising long-term rates and a Falling Gold price. >

I think there are a lot of speculative longs in the gold market. IF the above were to unfold there will still be periods where it LOOKED like the fed couldn't grow MS no matter what they did.

But like you said... WTFDIK!

DAK
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