Poll shows Bush leads Kerry 47% to 45% in Oregon.
April 14, 2004
Voter Preference
Eugene -
If the 2004 presidential election were held today, the results in the state of Oregon would be as close as they were four years ago, but the outcome might be different, according to a new poll conducted by researchers at the University of Oregon.
The survey of 444 registered voters, conducted between March 19 and April 7, shows George W. Bush leading presumptive Democratic nominee, John Kerry, 47 percent to 45 percent, well within the poll's margin of error of 4.7 percent.
Only one percent of Oregonians supported Ralph Nader, and six percent remained undecided. This survey shows an apparent reversal in the race compared to a poll conducted March 4 by Tim Hibbitts for the Oregonian, in which Kerry led Bush, 45 percent to 40 percent, although the change is within both polls' margins of error.
According to Joel Bloom, a UO political scientist and survey researcher who directed the survey, "this strongly confirms what has become conventional wisdom, namely that Oregon is a battleground state in the 2004 election, with no clear favorite."
"While Democrats have carried Oregon in the last four consecutive elections, Gore did so by a margin of fewer than 7,000, votes," Bloom continued. "Despite a Democratic edge in party registration, the state does seem to be trending Republican, making it a critical state for Democrats to hold onto, and providing Republicans with a golden opportunity for a pick-up."
Other findings of the survey include:
While Kerry leads in the Portland area, 53 percent to 40 percent, Bush leads elsewhere, 51 percent to 39 percent
While Bush leads among men, 50 percent to 43 percent, Kerry leads among women, 46 percent to 44 percent
Kerry leads among independents and political moderates; and Bush retains strong loyalty among Republicans and conservatives.
Text provided by the University of Oregon |
