Turtle System -
originalturtles.org
A good example of a mechanical system.
While I am interested in systems, I am a discretionary trader / investor who like to find three things -
1) Big macro shifts - rise of China, decline of USDollar, tech bubble. I then ususally look for a leveraged way to play this. The closed end China fund CHN, was at one time selling at a discount to NAV. Currently, Japan fits the macro play.
2) Mis-prices asset classes, like energy trusts, or metal minning.
3) Individual mispriced stocks- like RRI, TMR, ROYL, KCS, PD, etc.
4) I try to keep in mind cyclical trends - there was a time about 2 years ago when I sold 90% of my energy stocks and stayed out for about 6 months, because they were going down.
Within these themes I generally use a trend following/momentum approach.
My DD is mostly seeing if there is a real mispricing and seeing if can find any obvious fleas on the dog.
I will also tend to look at a comaprison of stocks in a sector, and buy the best 2, 3, or 4 out of maybe a dozen candidates. This gives me some diversity and means I have more of a sector call. |
