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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (4372)4/15/2004 7:20:02 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
<May 05 is at 116.20, and March 06 at 105.75>

Good points, a reverse contango, where you get paid interest just to wait. And I don't expect the supply side of the equation to be resolved by May, 2005, and even May, 2006 is very problematic. The demand side would require a worldwide contraction of 5-10% from today's levels, which I think could be a distinct possibility if China busts in my Train Wreck scenario. Therefore, one outcome might be for there to be a huge spike in the nearbys, with the longer dates lagging. A good compromise therefore might be the Dec. 2004, which trades 8 cents less than the nearby.
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