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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: mishedlo who wrote (11990)4/15/2004 1:09:26 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
<you seem to think the boom in China can go on forever.>

Where have I ever said that? I'm confused because I usually communicate pretty directly, don't I? Anybody else having trouble with my Train Wreck concept, repeated here ad nauseam?

But, let me explain it again: I don't expect China to cool significantly from monetary rigging, and fine tuning "policy". I expect China to bust as they approach ground zero and run off the cliff on the immense quantities of input goods they need to run their operations.

Under my scenario, this run up in commodities AND input goods is unlikely to just quietly whimper out with copper at 1.28, and nickel at 6.00. You will see severe rationing first, and that will have the effect of just collapsing whole sectors of their and our base.

<case for massive rate hike?.>

You're the one who goes on and on about this concept as if it's still relevant. I think it's secondary. I could certainly see where the MoP might raise rates, but only because there is a call for it, and that seems to be gathering steam. My scenario instead calls for an inflation panic at the end of the market the Fed doesn't control. People won't want to hold Old Maid "confiscatory" Cards in a crack-up boom, ESPECIALLY with a MoP that just fiddles (and puts out lies and propaganda) while Rome burns.
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