Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk

SOXL 39.19

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Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Runomo™ who wrote (14890)	4/17/2004 10:09:14 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) of 207057

HI MO, I've been waiting for your summation chart analysis. Thanks. If I could go into the dreaded question phase here with you: Do You Think ? "This time it is different": Although the oscillator has gone deeply negative ,the index has not yet bottomed or started it sideways stall. Does this time not need triple successive new lows to signal the reversal.Note that by the time the index stalls or goes sideways,the oscillator has already reached 0 and it may also even be slightly positive.At that point(the oscillator being at or above zero what is being signalled on a realtime data basis? advance/ declines? new highs /new lows? I'm ignorant on what trips the oscillator and I know you've watched it for years. The encouraging observation is the slope of the fall deteriorated substantially friday - that is the drop from 240ish to 200ish (40 points)was a whole lot less than the day before's drop of 310ish to 240ish.(70 points). This gives me hope that the next 3 days should be pivotal.A down dip on any of them - depending on which sector your stock is in, would be a great entry point for a mad money gamble.It looks to me like Monday could fall another 40 points and then we rotate sectors which means the index goes sideways? Looks to me like the oscillator is one to two days into reversal and that leads the index by about 3-4 days,so its close to a perfect dip buy-depending on the sector. As you point out, tech stunk up the market this week - could be a great monday dip buying opportunity?GG Last but not least,price on the NYSE has passed the retest of March 22-24 lows in flying colors.The sector rotation out of tech (NAZ)and into NYSE type "quality stocks" has definitely benefitted price. If this is as low as NYSE goes,it definitely signals a consolidation move to new highs is in the works.A retest and support at 6500 is not even close to a retest of 6350. That begs the question are we thru it all yet? Does NYSE composite have to go thru a test of 6350ish (300 points to go)which would correspond to DJIA's low on 3/24 @10007.49?(445 points to go?) The naz hit 1896.9 on 3/24,well below friday's low of 1982(85.2 points to go?) Looks to me like S&P and Dow have taken a leaders role - which makes me suspect of a real leadership kind of Rally.But then I'm definitely biased towards tech. The other scenario is: there'e a real short feeding frenzy going on at the Naz trough.We all know that short interest in the hands of the retail sellers is the stuff of new market highs. Friday a Raymond James rep on Bloomberg said of all short interest, 50% was held by retail interests.The Naz is lagging and looking weak. Certainly the Naz's performance is so stinky that shorts have to feel pretty smart.I'm hoping they feel so good that they get greedy and double up - their strategy so far is looking real good, in a relative way.The one snafu to it all, is that a retest on the March 24 low @ the Naz is still far from confirmed- the low is 85.2 points away. Me thinks this more psychological divergence(certainly not a TA divergence) is setting up the trap for shorts who are shorting tech stocks. A dip on Monday in the NAZ as S&P and the Dow hold would be a good time to get long - a little more in tech land? Anxious to hear input from you about where we might see the difference between the oscilator vs the index on realtime data? It could be a great tip for timing?? Thanks as always for your thought provoking charts - hope I haven't buried you in questions. Bob If it isn't different this time - then the Index is going to get really LOW and Flatline - something like I've not seen on your chart.The time before in August ,it took the oscillator 45 days and a triple bottom for the index to get as low as where it is now plus or minus 4-6 days. We're close Bro , thanks again for the great charts - you're a brilliant student of the market.

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