Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk

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To: dvdw© who wrote (14895)	4/17/2004 10:47:23 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 207068

Hi dvdw, Just a note from this traders actual experience last month. In last November I sold some Orcl 12.50 puts which expired just below the exercise price last March 19th. So the stock was put to me at a below market adjusted cost.I was hoping for this as I averaged down an existing position. After all the larceny of the week before and the week of the options expiration, Oracle hit its recent lows,the following monday. My thinking went like this.Put sellers sold,thinking the stock would never get exercised to them. On the next monday all put sellers woke up with stock in their account.I was perhaps the bastard buyer that wanted to keep the stock. I felt that the low in Oracle was put in on the monday following the expiration (third friday), as those who were put the stock unloaded the stock that following monday. With a supply of sellers - I think short sellers like to piggyback on the supply and drive the price down for a short term daytrade play. I'm thinking those stocks that have endured this month's larceny plays for da boys paycheck puposes - may well be targets from the greedy boys who also want to get a daily paycheck this coming Monday. A couple of examples: Oracle close at 11.99 on this month's expiration friday - put sellers got the stock put to them by a penny.No 12.50's are out there in this month, so they hit the next closest thing. Intel had a huge volume friday and closed down below the 27.50 put after violating the March 22nd low of 26.03 with a lightnening quick spike to as low as 25.55. So if they didn't panic and cover the put at a relative lows low stock price (high put price to cover)- a lot of people just picked up Intel over the weekend. I'm hoping there is some supply(stock for sale) in tech land this Monday morning.I'm thinking the shorts will want to manipulate a pay day on top of the supply. I also think Mo's summation analysis shows we're very close to a market turn and - NO, Repeat NO, technical levels of support have been violated. Me thinks the boys have milked an options pay plan particularly aimed at tech.I'm hoping for their greed to carry on to Monday morning as well. The interpretation of Intel's Q1 performance says it all. Their revenue was up 21% the net earnings tripled and their guidance for the historically weakest quarter of the year was for the same level of revenue in Q2 as in Q1. A tripling of revenue YoverY and the same level next quarter in the worst historical quarter,is another way of saying business is good and getting better!! Well that terrible forward vision hit the stock down all week. I'm an optimist,but that's not bad news.The markets interpretation was that of the lambs following the price action. Larceny !! Some times you just need to know what you know and act on it. BWDIK Bob Turnaround in Tech land this Tuesday!

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