Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk

SOXL 39.19

+8.3%

Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (14896)	4/17/2004 4:18:04 PM
From: Runomo™	Read Replies (1) of 207052

Hi Bob, There is no dread in asking a question bro..... I am just a student of the market like many here and has much to learn and I really prefer to keep things very simple.... The first thing to take note of with regard to the NYSE summation is the record historic time it has stayed above the zero line.....the zero line is the liquidity demarcation line, in other words when the summation is above the zero line it usually means there is sufficient liquidity in the system and money is flowing into the market. Conversely the reverse is also true.... stockcharts.com[w,a]dellynay[d19980417,20040417][pa]&pref=G "Although the oscillator has gone deeply negative ,the index has not yet bottomed or started it sideways stall" Generally price and mcosi bottoms come first before the summation finds a bottom...Last year you'll note the summation continued to decline an additional 200 points while the NYSE and the mcosi were already on the upturn...so what we should expect now is a deceleration of the rate of the summation decline into the sideways stall that you mentioned.... "Does this time not need triple successive new lows to signal the reversal." The NYSE and Naz mcosi already made a beautiful complex bottom which had the works going for it....i.e positive divergences, but the new wrinkle this time around was the sudden rise in interest rates which precipitated a sharp final decline...the thing to keep in mind is that both the NYSE and Naz mcosi have spent plenty and sufficient time below their zero line to support another large summation advance to the upside. "That begs the question are we thru it all yet?" The market message is mixed...we have strong NYSE market which BTW is the primary market and a weak Naz market which I know is our own little Babe but is a secondary market after all...the caution comes from the present Naz summation configuration: stockcharts.com As you can see the Naz summation went below it's zero line in March.... found a nice bottom and has rallied strongly off that March bottom but remains short of it's zero line...I know there has been quite a bit of crash talk going on lately and I suspect it's because those TA analysts understand that the strongest market declines usually come from the summation failing at the zero line after a rally from below.... So the Naz task now is to move decisively above it's summation zero line before we are certain that this correction has run it's course...Other TA suggests that the Naz will eventually accomplish this task...I hope this answered some of your questions, cheers, Mo

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