Have you changed positions on treasuries?
you mean position in the "mouth" sense or the "money" sense? fortunately, i changed position in the "money" sense, which is the only one that counts, around March 15. sold 25yr Zeros for a bit over 28, and sold 5yr coupons for 101.58 or something like that.
thank god.
in the "mouth" sense, i am agnostic about USTs, but once i get out of a trade that subsequently blows up (USTs), i am less likely to try that trade again.
and without a possible money position, i quickly lose interest these days in having a mouth position.
agree the US may default but is that likely in the next 10 years? 4? 8? 15? 20?
i have no idea. i am just trying to avoid getting blown up by what appear to be closely spaced financial landmines no matter which way one turns.
When people are up to their ass in debt and credit, exactly how is raising rates going to solve anything
well, what do you mean by "raising" rates? obviously, Mr. Market has been raising rates with a vengeance the past month. he doesn't give a hoot for Mr. Greenspan, does he?
As for China floating, or repegging, take
i don't have an opinion, mouthwise or moneywise, on this. except that i would be surprised if the Chinese were anything but gradualists. |
