Hi all; Vietnam vs. Iraq, the numbers so far.
We lost 529 dead last year. We've lost 217 so far this year. US losses recently appear to be stabilizing at an average of around 5 per day. If that stabilizes for the rest of the 257 days of the year, our total losses for 2004 will be about 217 + 5x257 = 1502. Here's how the first two years of Iraq stack up compared to Vietnam:
Vietnam Iraq
------------ -------------
1964: 137 2003: 529
1965: 1,369 2004: ~1,500
1966: 5,008 2005:
1967: 9,378 2006:
1968: 14,592 2007:
1969: 9,414 2008:
1970: 4,221 2009:
1971: 1,380 2010:
1972: 300 2011:
-- Carl
P.S. Last year, at a time when US troop losses were only 318 and had been in decline for two months, (and the administration was talking about how good things were in Iraq) I wrote:
Bilow, September 29, 2003
The administration's own expectation is that there will still be large numbers of US troops in Iraq as of the end of 2004. The military in Iraq says that as long as we have troops there, they will be shot at. And the effect of our campaign is to train the Iraqis into becoming first class guerilla warriors. This will begin to yield real problems for us by January of next year. We will probably pass our 1000th KIA some time next year. So our casualties for 2003 and 2004 will approximately match the 1964 and 1965 years of Vietnam. #reply-19353269
Looks like I missed the transition to "real problems" by two months, but not bad as far as that sort of guesswork goes.
Also:
Bilow, June 5, 2003
Our newspapers are ignoring the steady casualties now, but by the time the elections pick up, this is going to be the only thing people talk about. That and how Bush lied his way into a failing war. #reply-19004214
But don't worry about the details. If I am correct in my analysis of the numbers, our death rate due to undeniable hostile actions will be increasing this summer. This will be due to three things. First, the Iraqi resistance will be learning to run a more effective guerilla campaign. Second, the US will send more troops to Iraq, thereby providing more opportunities for the Iraqi resistance to target. Third, the neighbors of Iraq with which we have lousy relations will begin leaking more assistance to Iraqi resistance groups across those immensely long porous borders. Then you can eat your f'ing words. #reply-19007064 |
