The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (12179)	4/19/2004 12:40:36 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) of 110194

We are far far away from another refi boom now. aren't you predicting a bond rally (MR. Market has "raised" rates only to see them lowered within months every time)? if a bond rally happens then refis will happen. actually we may have a good setup for a rally, although i am not betting on it. there is that big short position in TLT, and the monster yield move we've had the past month based on specious job figures. so if it takes that little to bump yields, what happens if we print another low jobs figure? somewhere over the weekend i read somebody predicting the "biggest rally ever" or somesuch if we print 75K. refi boom over yesterday. I agree (and said so myself last week). then why are you expecting a bond rally? they go hand in hand, don't you think?

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