you're a student of history, Gregor...why don't you give us YOUR take on your postulate?
It is a mistaken premise in my opinion that gold and interest rates cannot move in the same direction, at least for a noticeable time.
It is my firm opinion that gold will be trading on new metrics, mostly political and economic before end of summer. I could care less what Greenexpand does with interest rates.
He's being gored by the horns of dilema he's so carefully crafted, but then EVERY FR chair is...and has been. It's the nature of the job.
The "thing that AG has done differently" is that it is well circulated he has innoculated all the staff at NYFed, and over a period of at least a decade, so that in the event of his demise OR departure, things will pretty much rock along as if he was still in charge.
To the best of my recollection the knowledge basis of the F/R chair's decision process has never been so widely disseminated amongst the plebes, paralegals and other policy implementors as has been promulgated by AG.
I keep waiting for a "global position" to open up "above his head" so that he can step up. However, for the life of me, I can't devine who will step up and be appointed in his chairship shoes.
However it will be, it will be "their fault" that rates are raised, NOT unca'alan's.
I repeat, gold will be trading on yet unrevealed metrics by late summer 2004 that will be both global economic and political based...and interest rates will either be higher or lower, but it will NOT take the steam out of gold, headed for $480 to low $500s by that timeframe. |
