More good news. Incredible that Kerry has not picked up more ground.
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Hanging Tough
Despite Troubles in Iraq, Poll Finds Presidential Ratings Steady or Rising
Analysis
By Gary Langer
April 19— Mounting casualties have created dour public assessments of the war in Iraq, with nearly six in 10 Americans saying the United States has gotten bogged down there. Yet most remain committed to seeing it through, and despite his recent difficulties President Bush is hanging tough, with his ratings steady — or even improved.
In many ways the 50-50 nation continues, with the public divided on basic issues into polarized camps of roughly equal size. Americans split 51 percent-47 percent on whether the war was worth fighting — hardly a broad endorsement of the once-popular invasion, but also no worse than it's been since February, despite the bloody month just past.
Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.
It's an identical 51 percent-47 percent split on Bush's overall job performance, also roughly steady since February, despite the war and criticisms of the administration's handling of pre-9/11 intelligence. On Iraq specifically, 54 percent disapprove of Bush's work — but again that's no worse than it's been in recent months, and he's actually improved vs. John Kerry in public trust to handle the situation there.
Significantly in terms of election politics, economic concerns — a threat to incumbents — have eased somewhat, and preference for Kerry across a range of issues — Iraq, the economy, taxes, health insurance, the deficit, education and others — has cooled since its peak during the primaries. Last month Kerry led Bush in eight of 11 issues; today he leads in just one of them, health care, and by a narrower margin.
Kerry's lost ground on personal attributes as well, and just 41 percent of Americans believe he "takes a position and sticks with it,"? a concerted line of attack by the Bush campaign. Bush, meanwhile, retains a large advantage on fighting terrorism, long the wellspring of his support. Overall, with Ralph Nader out of the equation, the race is a dead heat; with him in, it's slightly better for Bush.
Iraq
Iraq is still fraught with hazard for the administration. Fifty-nine percent of Americans say the United States has gotten "bogged down" there. Sixty-five percent call the level of U.S. military casualties "unacceptable" — a steady majority, though again, not significantly worse than it's been for months.
Assessing Iraq
YES NO
Is the U.S. bogged down in Iraq? 59% 41
Keep forces there until restored? 66 33
And geopolitical assessments have grown glum. A year ago, as Baghdad fell, 64 percent thought the war would make the Middle East more stable; today just 34 percent think it's done so. Then, 52 percent thought it would put the United States in a stronger position in the world; today just 29 percent think that's happened.
Effects of the War
YES NO
Middle East is more stable 34% 64
U.S. is in a stronger position in the world 29 52
Looking ahead, more than half, 53 percent, continue to think the administration lacks a clear plan on what to do in Iraq (again, this has held steady recently). And nearly six in 10 think the planned June 30 transfer to an interim government will be "symbolic" only, although nearly two-thirds say it should proceed nonetheless.
But other results on Iraq are considerably more positive for the administration:
• Fifty-seven percent of Americans continue to say the war has increased the long-term security of the United States, its fundamental rationale. (Fewer — 33 percent — think it's improved security "a great deal," suggesting that the cost-benefit equation remains open.)
• Fifty-four percent support sending more U.S. forces to Iraq, and that grows to 65 percent when opponents are told the U.S. commander, Army Gen. John Abizaid, has called for more forces to deal with the current unrest there.
• Perhaps most strikingly, 66 percent say the United States should keep its forces in Iraq until civil order is restored, even if that means sustaining further U.S. military casualties. That's up slightly from 58 percent in October; as with previous polling results, it contradicts the conventional wisdom that rising military casualties in and of themselves create public demand for the withdrawal of forces.
Vietnam?
Forty-six percent say it was "a mistake" for the United States to go to war with Iraq, up from 16 percent at the time of the fall of Baghdad, and also much higher than it was after the invasion of Afghanistan, and after the 1991 Persian Gulf War.
But that's far below its peak during the Vietnam War, which 61 percent called a "mistake" in a Gallup poll in 1971.
Was War a Mistake?
YES NO
Iraq, 4/04 46% 52
Afghanistan, 1/02 6 93
Serbia, 6/99 41 55
Gulf War, 3/91 10 87
Vietnam, 5/71 61 28
Terrorism and Intelligence
The pre-9/11 intelligence hearings have boosted some criticisms of the administration's handling of terrorism intelligence. But they have not cut into Bush's baseline support for handling the campaign against terrorism — 63 percent approve, unchanged. Bush gets no more personal blame for not doing more to prevent the attacks than does Bill Clinton, and there's a broad sense the government's doing better now.
Sixty-one percent say the government in general could have done more to prevent the attacks, up eight points from May 2002, when the issue last was prominent. And most, 56 percent, also say the Bush administration specifically did not do enough to follow up on intelligence reports of possible terrorist activity before the attacks, up 10 points.
But 62 percent accept the administration's position that the intelligence was too vague for specific action, and 81 percent believe it's doing a better job with intelligence now. (There's room, though, for more improvement; just 37 percent say it's doing "much" better.)
Half the public says Bush bears some personal responsibility for not doing more to prevent Sept. 11. But about as many also say Clinton bears some personal responsibility. And fewer, about one in five, say either bears "a great deal" of responsibility.
Economy
On the economy, while Bush isn't out of trouble, his position is looking less dire. Fifty-four percent disapprove of the way he's handling it — a weak rating, but no worse than it's been. Fifty-seven percent rate the economy's condition negatively, but that's down from 70 percent last fall.
And while 43 percent say most Americans have gotten worse off financially under Bush, this, too, has stabilized nine points below its peak last fall. By contrast, in the deep economic discontent of August 1992 — the summer before Bush's father lost re-election — 61 percent said most Americans were worse off, 18 points higher than today.
Top Issues
The economy, moreover, no longer leads the list of most-important issues in the presidential election: Down 10 points in this poll, it now shares the top position with Iraq (up 13 points) and the war on terrorism.
The shift away from the economy as the top issue clearly benefits Bush, since it's his weakest issue of the top three. People who pick it as their top issue favor Kerry over Bush to handle it by a 2-1 margin, 64 percent-31 percent. People who cite Iraq as their top issue favor Kerry to handle that issue as well, but by a closer 54 percent-44 percent. And people who pick terrorism as the top issue overwhelmingly favor Bush to handle it, 74 percent-22 percent.
Top Election Issue
Now March Change
Economy 26% 36 -10
Iraq 23 10 +13
Terrorism 22 17 +5
Trust to handle it
(among those who pick it as their top voting issue)
Bush Kerry
Economy 31% 64
Iraq 44 54
Terrorism 74 22
Top Voting Issue: Now vs. March
Now March
Economy 26% 36
Iraq 23 10
War on Terrorism 22 17
Head to Head
More broadly — among all Americans, not just among those who pick one of these issues as most important to them — Bush has battled back to parity or better. As noted, in early March, riding high off his primary victories, Kerry led in public trust to handle eight issues out of 11. Today Kerry leads only in trust to handle health care, and by just six points — compared with a 20-point advantage last month.
In other examples, last month Kerry led Bush by 15 points among all Americans in trust to handle the deficit; today there's just a single point between them. Kerry led by 12 points in trust to handle the economy; today they're even. They were about even on Iraq (Kerry +1); now it's Bush +11. Even on same-sex marriage, a much lower-tier issue, trust has gone from an even split to a 16-point Bush advantage. And Bush's 21-point lead in trust to handle the campaign against terrorism is unchanged.
Trust to Handle It (Among All Americans)
Now March
Terrorism Bush +21 Bush +21
Economy = Kerry +12
Iraq Bush +11 Kerry +1
Health ins. Kerry +6 Kerry +20
Education Bush +3 Kerry +12
Soc. Sec. Kerry +4 Kerry +16
Deficit Kerry +1 Kerry +15
Taxes Bush +6 Kerry +8
Jobs Kerry +2 Kerry +8
Rx drugs Kerry +3 Kerry +9
Same-sex marriage Bush +16 Bush +1
Trust to Handle the Issues: Now vs. March
Bush Kerry
Economy-Now 47% 47
Economy-March 41 53
Iraq-Now 52 41
Iraq-March 47 48
Health Insurance-Now 42 48
Health Insurance-March 36 56
Attributes
Equally important as issue preferences are personal attributes, and here, too, Kerry fares less well. Forty-nine percent rate him as "honest and trustworthy," down from 59 percent last month. (Bush does better, 55 percent and stable.) Kerry's rating as a strong leader is down nine points to 52 percent; as someone who understands people's problems, down seven points to 51 percent.
Bush does less well on empathy — just 41 percent think he understands their problems — but that's unchanged. He does better on being a strong leader — 64 percent, essentially unchanged, and 12 points better than Kerry.
In three new measures, just 45 percent say Bush admits his mistakes — but it's the same for Kerry. Just 46 percent say Bush is "always truthful in explaining his policies" — but it's just 38 percent for Kerry (with more undecided). And 79 percent say Bush "takes a position and sticks with it," while just 41 percent say that describes Kerry.
Bush Kerry
Sticks with his positions 79% 41
Strong leader 64 52
Honest and trustworthy 55 49
Truthful in explaining policies 46 38
Admits mistakes 45 46
Understands people's problems 41 51
Trial Heat
There are still miles to go before Election Day, but given these changes, it follows that overall vote preferences have shifted slightly. In a three-way match-up, including Ralph Nader, 48 percent of registered voters prefer Bush, 43 percent Kerry, and 6 percent Nader. That's a slight four-point gain for Bush and a five-point loss for Kerry since March.
With Nader removed from the equation, it's 49 percent for Bush, 48 percent for Kerry — a 50-50 nation.
Groups
Beneath the surface of the country's political halves, of course, there are sharp divisions among groups. Most men (56 percent) approve of Bush's performance as president; most women (52 percent) disapprove. Most whites (56 percent) approve; most non-whites (64 percent) disapprove. Women are 12 points more apt than men, and racial minorities 22 points more apt than whites, to call the war in Iraq "a mistake."
These and other divisions are repeated in presidential preference. Seniors — another longtime anti-war group — are the only age group to give majority support to Kerry. And in a notable finding, Bush does particularly well — 59 percent approval, and a 57 percent-31 percent lead over Kerry — among the roughly one in 10 Americans who say they or someone in their household is either an active-duty member of the military, or a reservist.
Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone April 15-18, among a random national sample of 1,201 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS of Horsham, Pa. |
