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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Sam who wrote (129599)4/20/2004 12:03:14 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (3) of 281500
 
Sam,

There will not be any indigenous civil war in Iraq. The Kurds will have a bleak future in Iraq. having assisted the US in invading Iraq, they will be branded as traitors and will have no role in the governing of Iraq or allocating its resources. The most they can hope for is to take refuge in their impassible mountains and continue with a de-facto autonomy. But I think they will not be able to hold any large cities.

It is a fantasy that Sunni and Shi'aa Moslems have any reason or desire for civil war. there is no ethnic difference between them. they speak the same language with the same accent. Intermingle in the same residential neighborhoods. Work in the same occupations. Wear the same clothes. follow the same religion. Eat the same food. Listen to the same songs and music. They marry among each other in the same way that Baptists and methodists intermarry. I am not aware that there has ever been a civil war in Iraq. Not is the past 2000 years, anyway.

However, I believe there will be a lot of blood-shed in Iraq after the US leaves. But it will not be along Sunni/Shi'aa lines. It will be more in the line of nationalists rooting out foreign agents from positions of power. Similar to what happened in VietNam.

Sarmad
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