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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 695.59+0.4%Jan 27 4:00 PM EST
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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (41087)4/20/2004 8:59:22 AM
From: Logain Ablar  Read Replies (3) of 70132
 
Harry:

RE: SNDK, LEXR vs SSTI, FLSH

SNDK, LEXR are in the flash cards used in consumer electronics versus SSTI which is the low end of embedded flash memory in cell phones and consumer electronics (like cell phones).

Now generally SSTI competes against the likes of INTC, AMD and Samsung but @ the low end (64 megs with larger chip sizes as they are behind intc in the shrinkage of circuts and wafer sizes) with the others @ the high end (INTC and AMD change production to go after the high end chips with higher margins).

Samsung has capacity coming on line by the 4th quarter.

I think SSTI has at least one more good quarter and maybe 3 before they run into the pricing deceleration SNDK is now experiencing.

All from memory:
the SSB analyst downgraded the chip makers like SSTI in the summer of 2000 and SSTI posted increasing earnings in the 2nd and 3rd qtrs and ssti forecast a good 4th qtr. In jan of 01 ssti delayed the 4th qtr earnings release but stock price was already around 20 from high in mid 30's (in summer of 00, it actually peaked 3 or 4 months after the naz bubble burst). The stock really tanked on the delay and subsequent significant miss in earnings.

The lesson is to better to be out early than late. I think SSTI should be good into July time frame.
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