OT: Susan, 2000 was the apex of the bubble. There is no guarantee that the market will go anywhere near as high as it was in 2000 any time soon.
RFMD therefore is not guaranteed to trade anywhere near its bubble highs.
EVER...
Market conditions are much different now. The SOX may already have hit a lasting top and now we may be in for a decline that will take 3/4's, or more, of the associated stocks much lower.
We had a really good bottom in October 2002 when the economy looked like hell. RFMD was not forecasting three years out then. That's the kind of thing that companies try to get away with when the economy looks great but their stock is well higher than bottom prices but struggling.
Here are some charts that clearly show the bottom in 2002 for the market and the SOX:
Note the uptick in volume in October 2002 (March 2003 for RFMD)when the SOX bottomed and BPNDX was putting in a higher low while the VIX was also at extremes.
investorshub.com
investorshub.com
investorshub.com
Note how different things are now with the SOX putting in a series of lower highs and lower lows:
stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyyay[d19960101,20041207][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
RFMD has been doing the same thing:
stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyyay[d19960101,20041207][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G
To me 20 certainly looks like a long hard climb from here and not very likely. The VIX is showing little fear and the BPNDX is under what I believe is distribution rather than accumulation. RFMD could continue to show revenue gains. The company could even continue to improve actual earnings without the stock actually going up.
The clear trend is now down although it will be interupted by some rallies on the way down. We need to see institutional buying, not selling, for the market and RFMD to advance.
JMHO, RtS |
