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Technology Stocks : ObjectShare (OBJS)
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To: Naveen Kumar who wrote (92)8/19/1997 7:20:00 PM
From: Raging Bull   of 185
 
If you look at the history of this stock over the past 2 years it has ranged from 7/8 to 26. The fundamentals have not changed enough to account for the wild fluctuations in stock prices. Cash holding have decreased from $3 per share to $1 per since the stock last traded double digits. The company has never had andy significant liablities. ParcPlace has never made money but the potential was always there and is today. The most significant fundamental change is that revenues have declined due to competition for Smalltalk with IBM and overall move to Java in the industry. This was all quite forseeable though, as long as a year ago, so the price fluctuations are baffling to me. My take is that the stock was well overpriced at 26 and is well undervalued at 1. It is uncertain where revenues will stabilize over the mid term period, but it is not likely that the company will hit serious cash flow problems within the next year or so especially with its significantly lower employee base.

One thing you can count on is that the price will fluctuate. Whether that means well below $1 or well above $1, I can not say. There has not been a period when the stock really stabilized. Even during the most stable period when the stock traded between $7 and $14, there were quite a few periods when the stock would increase and then decrease 50% in one week with no published news.

It has really been the last year to a year and a half that the stock has been on a steady decline. Shareholders react much stronger to revenue and earnings changes than to industry trends or product announcements.

I still feel very bullish on the stock at this price. You are lucky to be in a position to purchase your shares at $1... then again you could be even luckier if the fundamentals don't change significantly and you have and opportunity to buy at $.50.
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