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Biotech / Medical : Stressgen (VSE: SSB)
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To: Heat Shock who wrote (227)4/20/2004 7:25:58 PM
From: Heat Shock  Read Replies (1) of 236
 
To all, the unfortunate endpoints in the Anal Dysplasia PII Clinical Trial sure have depressed the share price. In the conference call, Stressgen described a possible situation: at the start of the trial a patient has several square inches of high grade lesion and at the end he has a tiny square millimeter of lesion. If the remaining lesion could still be called high grade, then the patient would be marked as a failure. The wrong primary endpoint was obviously chosen, as evidenced by the fact that the secondary endpoint of physician's global assessment was statistically significant.

In the current doldrums, it was refreshing to read a positive summary. Here is post #7768416 by immunoirving over on stockhouse.ca.

I just went through the annual report and recent presentation available on the web after a hiatus of a couple of months. IMHO things have moved forward quite reasonably with a clear strategy and numerous opportunities for positive news in the next year including:
1. Continued progress on design and implementation of RRP pivotal trial.According to the audio presentation, the sample size may be less than 100 ! This would be a major plus as prior reports suggested a much larger sample.

2. Results from separate phase 2 studies for HIV/dysplasia and LEEP failures likely this year.As with RRP, nice niches with little competition with likelihood for fast track and small pivotal trials sufficient.

3. Possibility at any time for partnerships related to HIV/dysplasia and/or LEEP failures.

4. Movement of HEP-B vaccine to human trials would be a major news item possible at any time really.

5. Possible partnership for HEP-B and/or Hep-C.

6. Most investors have written off Roche and GW. What if they are in fact moving on GW below the radar screen ? And the audio states clearly that SSB can regain control if Roche does not move-not sure of timeline. So this is a win-win though timelines may be long (or maybe not).

7. They understand the phase 2 AIN problems wrt need to change recruitment severity to AIN 3 only and to use better end-points. I wouldn't be surprised to see a partnership for a large, better designed study.

8. Market cap reflects panic thinking IMHO. Simply too many possible sources of value and news to have 65 million cap.

Heat.
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