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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony,

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To: Janice Shell who wrote (86444)4/20/2004 11:08:41 PM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell  Read Replies (2) of 122087
 
It was pointed out to me (privately) that there are no direct routes on Southwest between any NYC airport and San Diego. Indeed, the flight was headed to Phoenix:

According to a sworn affidavit, Elgindy was arrested Saturday at MacArthur Airport in Islip, N.Y., attempting to board a commercial flight using a fake ID. The Southwest Airlines plane was headed to Phoenix with a connecting flight to San Diego. signonsandiego.com

According to the Southwest web site, there is one matching Saturday flight per day, which leaves at 1:30pm and arrives in San Diego at 7:50pm, with a two hour wait in Phoenix. So, yes, I suppose Elgindy might have planned on not boarding his connecting flight, but that would have for absolute sure caused him to lose his $2.5M bail. I know freedom is priceless, but if there's anyone who thought he'd beat the rap and remain free in the US (and keep his money in the process) I would think it would be Elgindy.

As for your point that someone under surveillance in San Diego wouldn't dare return under an alias... I agree. Therefore, you could certainly make an argument the round-trip ticket was in his real name and thus he booked an earlier than planned flight back via Phoenix under an alias to avoid detection long enough to flee. But, if so, why bother to book through to San Diego instead of going direct to Phoenix? Aren't people who miss their connecting flights automatically flagged by the computer and investigated? Heck, why even bother going back west at all when he could just flee via JFK airport? I suppose you could then argue he planned to secretly gather up his belongings in San Diego and flee to Mexico, but, again, there's the loss of $2.5M in bail money. The only other "logical" explanation I can think of is that Elgindy wanted to spend a couple of days in San Diego where he knew he wouldn't be under surveillance. But that's assuming he would not have gotten a call or two in the mean time from his handlers asking him to verify where he was... meaning that doesn't make much sense either.

I guess the missing piece to the puzzle is whether Elgindy really did buy a new ticket to San Diego on Southwest using an alias, or whether he simply moved up his existing return flight. If the latter, then we'd have to assume the entire trip was taken under an alias, a monumental risk when you know you are being watched. So, in conclusion, while I see no smoking gun Elgindy was trying to flee, I also can't imagine how he could possibly have taken such a risk if he intended to stay. Very strange.

- Jeff
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