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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Sam who wrote (129692)	4/20/2004 11:31:40 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) of 281500

>> But Kurds are building facts on the ground in the north Sam, I don't think these facts are permanent. It all depends on who ends up ruling in Iraq after the US leaves. I think now there are at least 5 views that drive people's actions in Iraq. 1- The nationalists who see occupation as intolerable, and will keep fighting to oust the enemy from the country in order to reclaim their national honor. 2- The foreign fighters whose goal is to inflict some casualties on Americans regardless of the ultimate result. 3- The no-national-honor group, like Sistani, who expect to inherit control from the US occupation. Their weapon is patience. They hope that #1 and 2 will exhaust themselves fighting the US, and the US will get tired from fighting back. So rule will just fall into their lap. They are preserving their strength, and as long as the wait is not too long, they'll be patient. Kurds fall into this group also. 4- the active collaborators who are bought by the high pay to serve the occupation. 5- the large majority who just want to get through each day. But as their relatives get killed/kidnapped/jailed/tortured by the occupiers as many hundreds were in Falluja last week, some of them will join the nationalist resistance. In the end, #1 will win with support from #5. When that happens they will seek to establish control over the whole country. Very likely they will take revenge on the collaborators including Kurds. But regarding the specific "facts on the ground" issue. Back in '98, when the central government of Iraq went into some Kurdish areas to fight some of the US sponsored groups there, it was a total rout of the Kurds. I think the same could happen within a year of a US pull-out. Unless the Kurds manage to reach an accommodation with a legitimate central government. Sarmad

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