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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12301)4/21/2004 9:18:43 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
The aspect of this market ithat is shocking is the extent that the cogniscenti take their cues from the words of the MoP. It's as if they need to hear from the Wizard of Oz himself, that there's "pricing power" (no doubt the new toned down scam code word for "harmless" inflation) to take action: bunch of robots.

Obviously the speculative trade has been getting flushed out of the commodity carry trade too. It's the same playbook thing, of waiting for words of "insight" from the Wizards. In this case they just ignore the fundamental acute physical shortages that have developed, and just hit the sell button. I guess there really isn't that much of a dedicated crack up boom or flucht in die sachwerte crowd in these trades, other than perhaps gold? It's largely just speculative momo types, and that makes it very volatile.

This lack of independent thinking is so wide spread and pervasive, that even a interest rate bear like me must admit that certain sides of the trade may be getting heavy in the short run. Of course the carry trade bulls in notes and bonds are so leveraged, that anything could happen. As of this morning though I've covered about 75% of my June and Sept ED short. I had sold 2/3 my July copper on the move from 126.90 to 132.50, but I'm going to scale back in down here. I'm also going to buy NTO if it washes out (below 2.40) this morning. The mid tier mining companies have crashed, and are incredible bargains now.
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