Would you rather be cash flow positive for a year or two, in a business that's terminal anyway.(Because in 5 years(I'm an early adopter) i'll be downloading my movie to a box sitting on or built into my tv) or would you rather lose a billion or two(that moron investors were all too happy to give in Amazons case) to build a business that will be able to survive for the forseable future, that will be able to grow into many different areas(Amazon doesn't exactly sell only books)? I know if I had to pick between Amazon and Netflix which will be here in 10 years, most would pick Amazon.
This whole niche market is just like having an oil well that you know is only going to work for 5 years or so before the pool of oil your pumping is dry. You better pump all you can while you can, and damn, now Wal Mart and Blockbuster are pumping from the same pool of oil. Eventually it will all be download, movie on demand stuff. Hollywood wants to control their content better than the music industry. The DVD being cracked was a huge blow to this, so the next generation of doodads will have the TV itself with the decryption in it, not that this to won't get cracked, but the point is, i'll be paying the money straight to Sony or Disney etc., they'll be cutting out the middle man and the need for tapes and discs etc.
Throw in energy cost going up, and therefor transportation, and over the long haul this business model blows. Don't get confused, the only reason anyone at all gives a crap about this stock is because it got overshorted and is squeezable. Once the shorts are wrung from it, it will crater just like all other trash that has been in the same situation. |
