When gold mining companies were stating reserves at $325, I had about 800moz of reserves and another 1100moz of resources identified in my spreadsheet. I have not noticed large shift of resouces into reserves, and many mining companies remain conservative stating reserves at $350 at year-end 2003.
Just a guess but at $400, there should be at least 1 billion ounces of reserves, and I would guess it could go as high as 1.5 billion at $450. It is going to take years for miners to up their reserve numbers and even longer before they get to production.
My scenario still call for $750+ gold by 2007/8, a real exploration boom, and a production boom to close out the decade. Dire predictions of gold production going down to 1800mt (or less) made when gold was under $300 shall not come to pass (IMHO), and we shall have a 3000mt year to end the decade (did 2598mt in 2003, FYI)
It's fun throwing out ideas, sometimes I am even correct, and sometimes not, use at your own risk, but enjoy ! |
