Rumsfeld Era at Pentagon May Be Prolonged
By MICHAEL R. GORDON - NYT
WASHINGTON -- One of the most intriguing questions during this very political year is what President Bush's national security team will look like if the president manages to defeat his Democratic challenger in November.
For months, the conventional wisdom in Washington has been that the critics might not have Donald Rumsfeld to kick around any more. Having launched two wars, the defense secretary will probably move on along with Secretary of State Colin Powell, or so the speculation has gone. Their departure would clear the way for a new team and perhaps even open the door to new policies.
But the corridor talk at the Pentagon is very different. Current and former senior U.S. defense officials say that Rumsfeld has not given the slightest suggestion that he wants to leave his post any time soon. To the contrary, they say, he appears to relish his job, is immersed in his grand project to transform the American military and seems determined to carry on if there is a second Bush term.
''He has given no indication whatever that he is moving out,'' said a former Pentagon official who has worked closely with Rumsfeld. ''There is no sense of trying to bring things to closure. There is much more of a sense that he feels that he is in the middle of something and has got to keep it going.''
Rumsfeld, for his part, is not announcing his plans. Asked for comment, his spokesman provided the following cryptic statement: ''The secretary serves at the pleasure of the president. He is focused on the global war on terror and transforming the department for the challenges of this new century.''
Still, that sounds more like a man who is determined to remain on center stage, not exit it. This unapologetic champion of American power, who once dismissed some of his foreign critics of the Iraq war as ''Old Europe,'' is likely to remain a key part of the administration team if there is another Bush term.
There are four reasons why a Bush victory is likely to prolong the Rumsfeld era at the Pentagon.
First, Rumsfeld's project is not yet accomplished. From the day he took office, his goal has been to overhaul the military and create a more agile and deployable force. The army is restructuring several divisions, the navy has adopted a new strategy to surge its carriers instead of maintaining a constant global presence, and the Pentagon is pouring more resources into drones and other high-tech systems. The United States is moving to deploy a limited missile defense. It may not work effectively, but its deployment would fulfill a campaign promise and create new strategic facts on the ground. The Defense Department is completing a new plan to realign the overseas basing of American forces.
Rumsfeld, however, cannot be sure that his successor will carry his ''transformation'' agenda forward with the same assertiveness, and he must be aware that much of what he has done is potentially reversible. Rumsfeld, for example, has substantially elevated the importance of commando forces and the Special Operational Command. And he is still in the process of reviewing military contingency plans, overhauling the personnel system and appointing likeminded commanders. A lot of what Rumsfeld has set out to do involves changing the mind-set of the armed forces and to make it stick, Rumsfeld probably needs to stick around.
Second, Rumsfeld clearly enjoys the job. Perhaps the 71-year-old Pentagon chief should be groaning under the weight of his office, but he shows no sign of fatigue, likes to joust with reporters at Pentagon press conferences and seems to revel in his role as the most powerful secretary of defense since Robert McNamara. He has already made his millions. A man who once aspired to run for president does not seem like the type of person who would be eager to leave the corridors of power to write his memoirs.
A third reason is Iraq. Rumsfeld pressed for a policy of regime change, and he got it. Rumsfeld, who once refused to accept that Iraq was in the grips of a guerrilla war, has recently acknowledged that the fighting is tougher and the American casualties higher than he anticipated would follow the fall of Baghdad. Nor has Osama bin Laden been caught. With the upsurge of fighting in Iraq, the conflict there hangs in the balance and the defense secretary may want to see it through.
Lastly, Rumsfeld is at home in the Bush administration. He has a powerful partner in Vice President Dick Cheney. Their formidable alliance has shaped the internal debate and pushed it to the right. The defense secretary has also been counseling a very conservative president who is receptive to his ideas. It is Powell, a moderate pragmatist, who has been the odd man out and who, unlike Rumsfeld, seems likely to go.
Handicapping the new team is a favorite Washington pastime, but there are important issues at stake. Would Condoleezza Rice, who has come under scrutiny for her handling of counterterrorist policies prior to the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, stay if the president were re-elected, and in what capacity?
Now that there is an emerging consensus that intelligence agencies are badly in need of reform, who would direct the Central Intelligence Agency? If Powell leaves and Rumsfeld stays, who would take Powell's place and try to contend with the strong-willed defense secretary and one of the most powerful vice presidents in American history?
The old way has been to decide on the jobs after the election. But figuring out the new lineup should not just be a matter for the pundits and political gossip mongers. American voters, and the world, would know more about the stakes in the November election, the future course of U.S. policies and the prospects for coherent U.S. diplomatic and military strategies if Bush and Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the presumptive Democratic nominee, would identify their future team now.
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