You guys are doing much better than me in Q1. It looked like I got bearish too early or even completely wrong on this one, I have sold most stocks and with 70% cash, started to short stocks and buying puts, bought QQQ May 39 puts yesterday around $2, maybe too early again, but I plan to buy June puts later if the model still give me the bearish signal. Everyone is feeling good about the economy and earnings, yet my technical model continue to tell me we are approaching a serious sell-off, this model is purely technical, based on market data, has nothing to do with my "gut feeling", and worked pretty well in the past couple years. I guess the model is saying that all the good news are already priced in. It will need about 1-3 weeks and hopefully some very positive news (such as capture of Osama?) to test and trigger a final confirmation of a 15-25% sell-off, we shall see...
Steve
Often wrong but never in doubt. |
