Very interesting/useful exercise you've started, Clappie....Good idea......Working my way through weekend posts so far, and see that you have 4 responses already, and looking forward to reading those, and any others over the weekend.
I have some clarifications for you as to my current count..........which is NOT, at the moment, Map 1. Map 1 does , however, represent an alternative I said last week that I was "wondering" about......but I'm not quite yet ready to adopt it.
As of NOW, I would label the March low A (instead of the 4 you show); the rise into Apr 5 as "a" (instead of 1); and the fall into Apr 21 as a "b" (instead of 2). So I would be assuming we're now in "c" up. All this would complete a B up, counting from the high of Jan......That would leave another C down in the hopper before we take off for new highs in a 5-wave impulse.
You will note that this count corresponds quite well with Map 2......EXCEPT that I would not project C down below the Mar low..My rationale for this is the "rule of alternation". I see the preceding Wave II (starting Oct 2002) as a zig-zag......and therefore Wave IV, which I think we are now well into, would have to alternate into a flat or triangle....
I have said before that longer-range EW counts, necessarily, in my view, engage a person's FA bias. That has been....and I think still is.....true in my case.....and that has served me very well since Oct '02. A big part of my thinking in EW relies on my continued positive outlook for the US economy, earnings, etc. I have one big caveat, though......and that is the whole business of terrorism, Iraq, etc......and whether that goes from bad to worse.....much worse.. But hardly possible, as I see it, to factor that into the picture..
OT..Since it's a weekend.....Call you "Clappie" because somebody around here once did, and seemed like a friendly handle.....Have to tell you though I hesitate doing so. Will always remind me of an Army barracks mate......many, many years ago....to whom we gave that nickname. He was especially active on his weekend passes into town, and, unfortunately, suffered the consequences....leading to his nickname......<VBG> |
