Larry, "Never let a slogan do your thinking for you."
"Never fall in love with any stock."
I prefer the first slogan. Yes, it is silly to be grimly determined to love a stock while it fizzles and dies. But in that case, it isn't really the stock that one is in love with, it is oneself and one's own great investing skills and refusal to realize one's great ability to be WRONG! I guess this is semantics really, but I love to love my stocks and admire the people who run the companies.
I would rather be in love with Globalstar and what it stands for than investing in Globalstar AND Iridium. One of them is going to be the better investment. To say that no one knows for sure which one will come out on top is to beg the question. As risk taking imagineers our obligation is to say for sure which is better. If we don't we are reduced to mediocrity and might as well "buy the index".
Of course we can know very little absolutely certainly; if we could then shares would earn 3% like bank deposits. But we do know that Globalstar will come out top, operating quite simply at a higher level; it is going to be 1200 km high whereas Iridium will be about 800 km [can't recall exactly]. This will initially give Iridium a handset battery life advantage since the Iridium transmission distance will be less. But as the skies fill with the second and third constellations of Globalstar and the single constellation of Iridium gradually fades into oblivion, to be replaced by Motorola's new CDMA system, the average transmission distance will be less than Iridium's.
While they both have no product to sell, as investors, we pay a high price compared with earnings [zero in both cases] to be in on the ground floor before others have the courage to put their money in. While there has been no news, plenty of people are watching, learning, thinking, and being increasingly astounded at the prospects for these companies - and Globalstar in particular.
There was also an interview on CNN with EDWARD STAIANO of Iridium and Globalstar got good comment.
On systems becoming obsolete, Motorola has a year ago announced their M-Star CDMA system, which will be a low earth orbit system for telephones. It will directly compete with Iridium and Globalstar. The Cyberstar system will be a geostationary service which will not be used for telephone calls because of voice delay. It cannot replace Globalstar. Iridium satellites are on the road to obsolescence the day they are launched and their replacement is already being planned. Globalstar satellites will not become obsolete because the system is upgraded on the ground and the new constellations can be compatible with the old making a seamless migration to the latest and greatest.
The comment, "both will do well" also begs the question. One of them will do better than the other. Globalstar will make a lot more money because they can charge the same as Iridium and enjoy higher margins from a lower cost system.
A.S.Ong Yiu, I'm glad you like the information you get here. Sorry, I don't know anything about Microdyne.
Mqurice |
