Wade & Dan, et al,
Wade, you are not the only one that bought just before PMs base metals took a hit. I bought more of my favorite, CDU, at 3.55C, and it dropped below 3.00. It will rise again, me hopes. I think the correction has bottomed or is close to bottoming. At least, gurus like Sinclair, that know more about the market than I will even know, believe so.
Barron's had one story this week that was particularly interesting, even if it includes an opinion that isn't welcome. The story is an interview with Raj Gupta, the principal of Manhattan's RHG Capital. He suggest that both China's economy and real estate are bubbles that will burst by 2005 and that the breaking of the former will reduce the price of commodities. He also recommends shorting the Australian dollar, which says he is bearish on PMs. However, I think Faber is still bullish on China; though he sees as slow down in it growth. But no one is right all the time.
The Economic Beat Column was also a very interesting to me. The Author of the column was DAVID RANSON is president and head of research at H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics, South Hamilton, Mass. He argues that the trade deficit is the result of the Capital Accounts surplus. It makes me wonder what he has been smoking but maybe I have something to learn. I will read it again tomorrow.
The GMI/POG ratio:
On 04/22, the Barron's GMI was 579.81, down significantly from the previous week's 612.17. With the POG also down significantly at 394.50 (04/23), the ratio was down at 1.47. The ratio continues in the middle range where it doesn't suggest a rise of drop in the POG.
The ratio a year ago was 1.32.
Larry |
