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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (12648)4/26/2004 1:06:05 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
I know Grant's enforces copyrights, but if you could post the high points I'd be grateful.

I think the only tool the Fed has left is the Wizard of Oz effect. Market participants (cogniscenti) have been so conditioned to listen to their every word, trading on what they think they will do, that they think Easy Al and Helicopter Ben and their MoP cohorts are the center of the universe. My point is that they aren't, and it's the cogniscenti who continue to believe in Oz, that will consistently get their heads handed to them going forward. At some point very soon, Todo is going to pull the curtain back.

On a somewhat related topic: the housing bubble, it will be important to watch that purchase index. Wednesday's number might be illustrative, is it ever going to cool off? If it dropped below 400, I'd take some notice. So far:

2-27 423 5.49% 30 year mortgage
3-5 429 5.34
3-12 452 5.37
3-19 449 5.39
3-26 444 5.49
4-2 478 5.75
4-9 432 5.77
4-16 434 5.84 31.7% of all loans were ARMs
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