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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: William H Huebl who wrote (69263)4/26/2004 9:18:16 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
No problem!!

But I would suggest that you refresh yourself with a CREDIBLE history of the Vietnam war.

The Viet Cong were essentially wiped out as a result of their disastrous Tet offensive in 1968. After this physical defeat (but political victory for them within the US media), the North Vietnamese Army was the primary opposition faced by both the South and the withdrawing US.

And it took years for the North Vietnamese to stage sufficient NVA to launch major assaults. All at the same time that the US was decreasing its manpower and assistance to Vietnam, the North was increasing its use for armored vehicles (supplied by the Soviets)..

And most importantly, they used that time to turn the Ho Chi Minh trail from a footpath into an actual paved highway (in parts), as well as an oil pipeline. All buit within the protected "sanctuary" of the neutral country of Laos and Cambodia. Without those neutral safe havens, it's unlikely the NVA assault would have succeeded strictly based on an invasion across the DMZ.

But did we choose to match the NVA in invading and cutting off the Ho Chi Minh trail? NO. And with such uninterdicted supply lines and safe havens in which to regroup and marshal their forces, it was inevitable that the NVA would likely prevail.

No do you see anything similar in Iraq? I don't.

I DO continuing infiltration by Syrians and Iranians, but I don't see them building sufficient infrastructure to progress from a terrorist war into a guerilla conflict.

So we will continue to see urban terrorism and car bombings. But we won't see the equivalent of a "vietnam" unless we're willing to permit militants to assemble large units and infiltrate/advance enmasse from neighboring countries.

Hawk
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