Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (5096)	4/27/2004 7:16:11 AM
From: TH	Read Replies (1) of 116555

Haim, I do not recall any comparison between retail and CPI. I think its safe to assume that CPI got a washing in the hedonic spin cycle. Another month or two and I think we are going to have a strong trend in CPI; even after the magic is applied. I think most here would agree that you are correct regarding the retail sales data. Farmers have to be prudent, and maybe as a group they are the canaries for inflation; at least in certain segments. I would not yet predict the consumer is starting to slow, as it appears the American consumer has little fear of additional debt. Why stop now? A few signs the consumer may be starting to slow like Wal-Mart yesterday and Pier One (minor) today. The "Easter was early" excuse will get some mileage. Maybe the consumer confidence number today will be interesting. Was the strong housing number just a last gasp to lock before rates rise, or just more manic behavior? I don't know. Good Trading TH

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