I follow only Russell, Stack, Sullivan, Hussman, Lowry's, and Ned Davis Research. I do not assert that they are the ONLY professionals with well established track records and I impugn no one, particularly Russ, or Don Hays, simply because they are not on this list. However, I am satisfied that these guys belong there. I have unscientifically followed newsletters for 32 years. Only Hussman of the above group has less than 20 years of a published record, and he has made up for that with the best record of all for the time he has been operating the Hussman Fund (curiously, the timing of his calls were not nearly so good with his Hussman Econometrics newsletter).
Hussman has been giving signals for some months that his indicators were deteriorating, just as you say. On the others, as you have guessed, there are also observations of deterioration in the indicators they follow. Stack will weasel, to some extent, but he does put percentages on his model portfolio. Was 100%, now 87% invested. Sullivan may remark, but he is the clearest -- either he's 100% invested or he's 100% out. At the moment, he's in. Lowry's reached the lowest level of "Selling Pressure" in 6 years, a few weeks back. On that measure I would not be looking for a sudden collapse, but a slow deterioration from here. |
