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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: carranza2 who wrote (130220)4/28/2004 1:51:26 AM
From: Elsewhere  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
[JJ] A good analyst with "out-of-the-box" thinking could have imagined that Saddam is just playing poker with the world...

[carranza2] He would have had to be a genius of an analyst, an Einstein of deduction.

Well, here on FADG we have Carl on record with this hypothesis. I am not suggesting that having no WMD was a 100% certain option. But it should have been discussed as an option with a maybe 15-33% probability. Also I refer to what Betts calls the "production" side, i.e. intelligence analysis and scenario scheming, not the "consumption" side, the politicians.
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