Jon:
You state:
I do not expect Java to result in revolutionary demand for servers...
Java has already resulted in a revolutionary demand for servers and this is just the beginning! You can just look at the earnings report for HP, IBM, DEC or even (yes even) SGI, and smaller players such as Auspex, or NTAP, not to mention Sun itself which is the leader of them all! The thin client, server centric is becoming the new computing model. It is still early to visualize this however it is much easier to visualize this now than about a year ago. Just think the fact that you and I are communicating via this thread is due to implications of Java, and further in order for our communication to take place in this manner you and I do not need to have a fancy Intel Pentium MMX (or whatever they call it these days). This sort of communication can easily take place via a Web TV, or NC with Java VM embedded chips! As I said similar to how Sindy Potier in the movie Mom Guess who is coming for dinner?! Said to his father: "...dad you see yourself as a black man, I see myself as just a man...", Sun's offer and vision to the world is: "you see Software as Windows, or UNIX, or Mac, or client-server specific, I see software as just software regardless of where or how they are run!" Java is not meant to be liked by the developers (necessarily). Developers are irrelevant whether they want to learn Java or not, they have no other choice but to adopt it since the people who write their pay checks will require them to design software based on the concept that, that software can be run anywhere (and by this it is not meant UNIX, Windows, Mac, VMS, etc., but rather to be run on different computing machines whether it is a desktop machine such as a PC, or a home appliance such as a Web TV).
The new computing model is meant for everyone (and by that I mean regular average consumers) to have access to the information technology. I have this feeling that you are an old timer Windows software engineer who perhaps (even to some extend justifiably) like most software developers view the computing world as being only the desktop. And this seems to be exactly the way how Bill Gates appear to think (eventhough I have a strong feeling he knows better and is just playing it that way). I posted a the following a couple of days ago that you might find it (at least) interesting:
techstocks.com
As for shortage of software engineers I tend to agree with you. Because of the new computing model whose implications are to provide the information technology to mass regular consumers, there will be (actually already is) an explosive demand for engineers to design and to write software that will provide such capabilities.
Regards,
Addi Jamshidi |
