trotsky (RAJA) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
today's reading=lowest in 6 years.
in the entire 20 year observation period, there have been about 8 similar readings. every time a rally of 30 points minimum followed on the heels of such a reading. the best rally was obtained by the late '94 RSI 20 reading - a rally of roughly 50 points followed over the next year, and during this rally, most exploration stocks actually did moonshots ( e.g. CALVF went from about 40 cents to 9 bucks, BGO from $2 to $10, GSS from $4 to $21, etc. - note btw. that some of these stocks only started to rally in '96 ) .
Date: Wed Apr 28 2004 18:04
trotsky (XAU RSI) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the RSI on the XAU daily has hit a level that hasn't been visited often in the past 20 years. namely, 20, approximately. it only fell significantly BELOW 20 on occasion of the '87 crash.
anyway, the good news is, that regardless of bull or bear market, such RSI readings have invariably been followed by a 30 - 50 point rally.
interestingly, today's RSI reading is the lowest in 6 years!
Date: Wed Apr 28 2004 17:41
trotsky (morbius) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
call volume in XAU options today exceeded put volume by 50%. so while prices are in freefall, options traders are not scared at all, and are betting on an upmove.
they have not yet capitulated.
Date: Wed Apr 28 2004 17:19
trotsky (Mike) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"The bearish sentiment regarding PMs is overwhelming"
how do you figure that? there's no evidence supporting this statement, on the contrary. sharply falling prices are in and of themselves NOT evidence of 'bearish sentiment'. in fact, as i've mentioned before, those indicators that actually measure sentiment accurately lately have unanimously said that sentiment was still way too bullish/complacent, in spite of the decline.
i'm not sure yet if today's debacle has put a dent in this sentiment picture...i'll report on it tomorrow, when all the data are collated.
anyway, the conviction of the bulls seems largely unshaken - so far i've only read one comment here allowing for the possibility that the bull may be over - and that came from someone who confessed at the same time to be long ( which is the real crux- what people say is one thing, what they do is another ) . |
