My regards to Heinz...
But he should be reminded that Gold contract with a low RSI, **at a relative high** can go much, much, much, lower even as RSI drifts around or even up.
RSI is not a real measure of where anything is headed. Who needs "oversold" measures when mere price bars tell a complete story? Except for pointing out this example, you'll never see it on my charts.
Here's a historical example for Heinz to look at... In this series of panels, only the upper right hand quadrant is current times (a weekly). Running clockwise from there, Gold contract Daily, Monthly and Weekly charts, the latter three from the Spring of 1998.
trendvue.com
You'll note that low RSI on the daily was only a prelude to even more selling before a bounce which led... even more selling. For a decade.
It can be argued that the rise in POG from 1995 on to 1998 looks very similar to the ride from 01 to 04. Not that it matters... what happened back then most certainly isn't affecting what is happening today.
The simple fact is that range spaning the first 4 months of this year is being tested on the low side, while at the same time the USD is appreciating against major currencies.
This range test is critically important. if the bottom falls out here (perhaps after a minor bounce for late sellers?) then we'll see GC move lower to retest each subsequent support level below. What won't be recognized by many who are simply enamored with the dreaded yellow metal is that a trend (down) will be in place on the daily chart. When will they sell? When the trend is evident on the weekly? Monthly? 100$ down?
Plenty of evidence of a strengthening USD, something I've been talking about for months here.
EURUSD trendvue.com
USDJPY trendvue.com
USDCAD trendvue.com
etc...
One or the other (gold or USD) will fail here and within the next little while, or the current situation - newly emerging trends (down in Gold, up in USD) will continue for some time.
I personally don't care where it goes. I sold all of my gold related holdings the first week of April.
Message 20017938
Taking profits at an important test of top is something you just have to do, IMO. |
