Here's a really big chart showing Gold contract and US$ Index, painted seasonally in a manner "close enough" to the 3 periods you listed, with data back to < 1985.
Warning, big chart:
trendvue.com
If Gold is trending upwards, those periods do tend to have price gains.
However, in that sample set of 20 years, gold has really trended up only twice on the weekly chart. In 30 years, its trended up only three times on the monthly chart. I suggest to you that if a market can't trend on the weekly or monthly charts, its not really a rally worth noting.
Perhaps the takeaway is this: its equally as likely that *any* period in a trending market is a good time to buy. Gold.
For completeness, here's another chart with Gold alone, data < 1975, monthly bars. Once it stated to trend out of the 1976 low, keeping it until the spike top was the right plan, not selling it due to seasonality.
trendvue.com
Here's a more detailed look at the 76 rally to the top. You can see clearly what I am talking about by trending - higher highs and higher lows on the monthly chart.
trendvue.com
A tangent: if we use the classical definition of "up trend" and apply a big time frame (monthly charts), there really are only three up cycles worth noting in all that time. The 76-80 rally (which technically did not end until a lower low was set in 81 but those would be big stops!); 85-88; and 01-?? perhaps 2004.
Which brings us back to the more important question right now - whether Gold is reversing its trend or not.
The first shot across the bow has been made. |
