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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Fishfinder who wrote (12831)4/29/2004 6:14:55 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
<blood in the streets buying OP for PM's was two years ago.>

That was the end (three years ago) of a monster bear market situation, this one is different kind of "blood", more purple than red. The candidates are now more mature, better financed, higher quality, more active and organized. So the emerging mine business is just at a more advanced stage now, three years ago they were dead. You would have been hard pressed to find this much quality then. I'd call this a major correction and buying opportunity within a bull market. Oddly it has occurred right at a time when the odds of a crack-up boom (flucht in die sachwerte) and/or commodity melt-up are very high. When the dollar swoons again, people are going to have to make a fundamental choice about the form of real money and real value they want to hold. I'm making that choice right here.

I believe that this correction is mostly fund driven, maybe 80% so. Friday's COTS will only take us up through Tuesday, but will certainly show big reductions in spec long positions. We won't see Wednesday's action in the Friday COT, but I'd hazard a guess that the specs may actually be short, not long on some commodities. That's how wild these hedge funds are. I'll bet the gold long position is way down.
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