The real question is, why don't the Shia have the ability to create such a force, at least in areas where they are a majority? How come the Kurds can, but the Shia can't?
The Kurds are divided, but threatened. The threat keeps the divisions under control. The divisions are still there, and if the threat ever subsides, don't be surprised if the PUK and KDP start dancing the headless chicken again.
The Shia are divided too, but they don't have the threat factor, the Sunnis being pretty much a doormat at this point. Whoever controls the Shia will end up controlling Iraq, and they are in the process of working out who that's going to be. Not surprisingly, the process involves more bullets than ballots.
What part of their self-interest is served by turning on the Americans now?
The Americans want to force the Shia to accept a system that will give the Kurds and Sunnis structural means to control Shiite power. The Shia leaders don't want that. The only obstacle to complete and unrestricted Shiite control of Iraq is the US. Naturally, the Shiite leaders, most of whom have visions of themselves in or near the seat of power, would like to see us go.
The Shi'a seem easily turned towards resentment of America, towards telling America to get out, now! when their interests are not that different from the Kurds'
How so? For the Kurds, the US presence is the only thing standing between them and domination by either Turks or Shiites. This is something they don't want. To the Shiites we are the only thing standing between them and unrestrained domination. To the Kurds we are a protector, to the Shiites we are an obstacle. Very different things. |
