The 'presumptive' nominee
Often when John Kerry is referred to in the media, it is with the modifier "presumptive" before the word "nominee." Kerry has enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination in Boston in July, but will the delegates stay with him if it appears by summer, or even sooner, that he can't beat President Bush?
Democrats' hatred of the president is so strong they might be willing to return to the days of the smoke-filled room and stage a coup in order to run a stronger candidate in November.
On April 27, James Ridgeway in his Mondo Washington column for the liberal New York newspaper The Village Voice made a case for just such a scenario. It began, "With the air gushing out of John Kerry's balloon..." and referred to the "Democratic establishment" as "arrogant and out of touch." It didn't get better for Kerry or the Democrats: "With growing issues over his wealth (which makes fellow plutocrat Bush seem a charity case by comparison), the miasma over his medals and ribbons (or ribbons and medals), his uninspiring record in the Senate (yes war, no war), and wishy-washy efforts to mimic Bill Clinton's triangulation gimmickry ... Kerry sinks day by day. The pros all know that a candidate who starts each morning having to explain himself is a goner." Again, this appeared in a liberal newspaper inclined toward Democrats, not a conservative publication like National Review or The Weekly Standard.
Ridgeway urged "Democrat biggies, whoever they are these days, to sit down with the rich and arrogant presumptive nominee and try to persuade him to take a hike."
This is remarkable stuff. While Ridgeway suggested the possibility of resurrecting John Edwards, that isn't about to happen. The only possible candidate who could replace Kerry - should delegates pledged to him abandon his sinking ship - is (drum roll and ruffles and flourishes, please) Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (presumptuous-N.Y.).
It's hard not to see the conspiratorial hands of Bill and Hillary behind Kerry's decline and the tumble of Howard Dean before him. Hillary Clinton could not afford to have Dean, who had a solid but not large enough base, win the nomination. Had Dean won the presidency, Hillary would not have a clear field in 2008 and she might be too old or her time might have passed by 2012.
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