Real Clear Politics - WHO'S GOT GAME?: Donald Lambro reports that the Kerry campaign's ground game is disorganized and lagging well behind President Bush's in key battleground states. At first blush this looks like terrible news for Kerry, but it really may be more of a sign of concern for the President.
Lambro cites Pennsylvania as one example of a critical state where Kerry is way behind in organizing - he hasn't even hired anyone to manage his GOTV operation there. Meanwhile, Bush has visited the state 27 times in the last four years and recently spent millions on advertising there. Latest poll: Bush 42%, Kerry 42%.
Lambro also highlights Michigan as another example:
"Mr. Kerry's campaign apparatus is nowhere to be seen in Michigan, a critical Midwestern prize with 17 electoral votes that Democrat Al Gore captured in 2000, but is now a neck-and-neck race where President Bush has the edge in some polls, Democrats say. "It's dead even here but there is almost no activity in the state" from Mr. Kerry's campaign organization, said Michigan Democratic pollster Ed Sarpolus."
Latest poll out of Michigan (of likely voters, no less): Kerry 51%, Bush 41%.
Elections are still won on the ground, no question about it. And there is a huge difference between winning a person's support in a telephone poll versus getting them to stand in a voting booth and punch your ballot.
Still, Lambro's piece struck me as overly pessimistic about Kerry's situation. Kerry is going to have plenty of money and an unprecedented level of support and organization from liberal special interest groups and labor unions. If he can get his act together as a candidate, Kerry will head into election day riding a wave of "anybody but Bush" emotion and with a more unified Democrat party behind him than we've seen in a long time.
Maybe Kerry's ground game will let him down in the end. It's entirely possible. Then again, maybe the anti-Bush force unifying and driving the Democratic base means Kerry doesn't have to have a meticulously structured GOTV effort to be competitive this year. We won't really know the answer for at least a few more months. |
